2021年始，隨著職場角色轉換(勞方→資方)，基於市場理解，有以下啟發：
1.價值觀點應彈性修正，既節約成本(人際、買賣、認知)，亦讓獲利奔跑
2.辨識市場雜訊與無謂人際，切勿浪費時間(生命)在與願景無關事物
3.勞方僅享受有限度的自由，資方卻擁有更寬廣的視野
4.一旦投資標的或策略廣為人知，潛在溢酬將趨近於無
5.即便正確，真相卻有可能遲不彰顯
以製鞋業為例，回顧2023年9月，幾乎所有人都推薦豐泰(9910)，惟我獨選寶成(9904)
原因很簡單：股價低於淨值(安全邊際)，每股自由現金趨近10元(銀彈充足)，而豐泰溢價太高！
迄2024年3月，市場以豐厚報酬證明我的觀點，也反諷聽信市場消息的投資人
謊言之所以可信，因其帶有真實成分
任何時刻，當下的論述均有一定依據，所言不假
不過，這不足以解釋未來周期趨勢，只能判斷近期市場意圖
投資人想的是「利」，資方圖的是「本」
現在搶購ETF的人是否了解商品屬性、價值主張、獲利結構、商業模式？
若全不懂，哪來的自信認為天上會掉下餡餅!?
進市場應有覺悟，賺的錢大多來自他人虧損，或金融創新
積極買賣的本質，是成本掛帥，虧損次之，然後才可能是正價差
有多少資金撐得住成本耗損，心理素質能否抵禦自我懷疑!?
在戰術上努力，卻在戰略上怠惰的人，只是不斷往返的過客
少了其一，還有千千萬萬等著
In 2021, with the transformation of workplace roles (labor → investor), based on market understanding, there are the following inspirations:
1. The value perspective should be modified flexibly, which not only saves costs (interpersonal relationships, transactions, and cognition), but also allows profits to get high.
2. Identify market noise and unnecessary relationships, and don’t waste time (life) on things that have nothing to do with your vision.
3. Labor only enjoys limited freedom, but investor has a broader perspective.
4. Once the investment target or strategy becomes widely known, the potential returns will be close to none.
5. Even if it is correct, the truth may not be revealed for a long time.
Take the shoemaking industry as an example. Looking back in September 2023, almost everyone recommended 豐泰(9910), but I only chose 寶成(9904).
The reason is simple: the stock price is lower than the net value (margin of safety), the free cash per share is approaching 10 NTD (captial is sufficient), and 豐泰 premium is too high!
As of March 2024, the market has proven my point of view with generous rewards, and it also satirizes investors who listen to market news.
Lies are believable because they contain elements of truth.
At any moment, the current discussion includes certain basis, which is true.
However, this is not enough to explain future cycle trends and can only determine recent market intentions.
Investors think about "profit", while companies want "capital".
Do people who are rushing to buy ETFs understand the product attributes, value propositions, profit structures, and business models?
If they don’t understand anything, how can they have the confidence to think that pie will fall from the sky!?
People should be aware when entering the market. Most of the money they make comes from other people's losses or financial innovation.
The essence of active trading is that costs take the lead, losses come second, and then there may be profit.
How much money can support the cost loss, and can the psychological quality resist self-doubt!?
Those who work hard in tactics but are lazy in strategy are just passers-by who keep in and out.
If one of them is missing, there are thousands more waiting to come. |
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