紀律篇：
https://www.jkforum.net/p/home.p ... blog&id=1697417
資本篇：
https://www.jkforum.net/p/home.p ... blog&id=1699247
不了解人性，就無法理解市場，成功的關鍵是對「人性」心理抗衡的認知！
市場的參與者是「人」，對趨勢或價值/格的判斷也因其所知的深淺，而有不同
參與者眾，資訊聯結選項多，更加劇行情的複雜度，促使人們關注其中的變化，忽略不變的原則
投資研究最重要的，是管理市場預期(看不見的手)，掌握人性；毋需違抗，而是用理性、客觀、數據來支持
然而，只要看似符合事實，人們就會將分析的能力，用於提供合理的解釋
這與客觀精神相悖，因此，所有的論述都存在著另一種相反的思維
競合催生智慧，使其有能力抱持對立想法，仍能維持才思敏捷，參考「反身性」
https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E5%8F%8D%E8%BA%AB%E6%80%A7
市場情緒擅長放大人性弱點(貪婪、恐懼、自我懷疑、過度自信)，洞悉行為模式就可以獲益，錯誤、憤怒、悔恨或憂鬱即是對人性的誤判
以鐘擺理論為例，貪婪與自我懷疑分處於正反兩側0~80%，是不可逆的人性，也是一種激勵/抵禦機制
此外，過度自信與恐懼介於81~100%極端區間，是集體催化的特殊情緒，不常見但極其致命
雖可逆，但受限於群眾信念的僵固性，無法判斷正確的轉化時機
知人者智、自知者明，優秀的投資者既懂商業分析，更深刻洞悉人性
市場上的每位投資人都想贏，卻不是誰都有能力將他人口袋的錢財納為己有
不變的原則，隱含著因應變化而適切修正的基礎認知
亦如自然週期，縱有四季轉變，但全年如常；儘管生老病死，然一生如斯
掌握週期擺盪的區位，辨識人性趨向，然後在可能轉化的奇點做足準備
最終將發現，逆人性只是一廂情願，應當站在更高的視角，創造改變行為的原始驅力
If you don’t understand human nature, you can’t understand the market. The key to success is the understanding of the psychological struggle of “human nature”!
Market participants are "people", and their judgments on trends or values/price vary depending on how much knowledge they have.
The large number of participants and information connection options further increase the complexity of the market, prompting people to pay attention to the changes and ignore the unchanging principles.
The most important thing about investment research is to manage market expectations (the invisible hand) and master human nature; there is no need to disobey, but to use rationality, objectivity, and data to support.
However, people will use their analytical abilities to provide reasonable explanations as long as anything seems to fit the facts.
This is contrary to the objective spirit. Therefore, all discussions have another opposite thinking.
Competition breeds wisdom, enabling it to hold opposing ideas and still maintain agility. Refer to "Reflexivity".
https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E5%8F%8D%E8%BA%AB%E6%80%A7
Market emotions are good at amplifying human weaknesses (greed, fear, self-doubt, overconfidence). You can benefit from insights into behavioral patterns. Mistakes, anger, regret or melancholy is misjudgments of human nature.
Taking the pendulum theory as an example, greed and self-doubt range between 0% and 80% on both sides. They are irreversible human nature and an incentive/resistance mechanism.
In addition, overconfidence and fear range between 81% and 100%, which is extreme. They are special emotions which are uncommon but extremely deadly catalyzed by collectives.
Although it is reversible, it is limited by the rigidity of the masses' beliefs and cannot determine the correct timing of transformation.
Those who know others are wise, and those who know themselves are clear on everything. Excellent investors not only understand business analysis, but also have a deeper understanding of human nature.
Every investor in the market wants to win, but not everyone has the ability to take the money from other people’s pockets and make it their own.
The unchangeable principle implies the basic understanding of appropriate modifications in response to changes.
Just like the natural cycle, even though the seasons change, the whole year remains the same; despite birth, old age, illness and death, life remains the same.
Verify the position of cyclical swings, identify human nature trends, and then be fully prepared for possible transformations.
In the end, it will be discovered that going against human nature is just wishful thinking, and we should take a higher perspective and create the original drive to change behavior. |
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